Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NMSU +120 LT -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +30 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | LT -1.9 (+31.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -3.0 (+33.0) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.1 (+31.1) | 138.3 (-12.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -2.0 (+32.0) | 138.3 (-12.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -1.7 (+31.7) | 138.2 (-12.2) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NMSU 72 – 63 LT |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NMSU 67 – 55 LT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | LT 67 – 58 NMSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | LT 73 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#209) | 3.3 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#228) | 1.04 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#223) | 1.20 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#203) | 0.555 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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