Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | LT -210 NMSU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +12 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -4.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -3.7 (-15.7) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -2.5 (-14.5) | 131.0 (-9.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -3.0 (-15.0) | 133.1 (-11.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -3.7 (-15.7) | 133.4 (-11.4) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NMSU 72 – 63 LT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NMSU 78 – 48 LT |
| Feb 25, 2024 | LT 67 – 58 NMSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | LT 73 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#126) | 1.4 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#105) | 0.30 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#103) | 0.48 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#87) | 0.507 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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