Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -1450 UCF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +24 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -12.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -12.4 (+11.6) | 147.8 (-13.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.9 (+12.1) | 144.9 (-10.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -12.5 (+11.5) | 148.0 (-14.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -11.4 (+12.6) | 146.3 (-12.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
| Dec 31, 2022 | HOU 71 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-5 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 21.4 (#10) | 12.3 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.86 (#11) | 3.46 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#10) | 4.13 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#15) | 0.637 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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