Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1600 UCF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -19.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.8 (+23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.1 (-9.1) | 126.6 (+9.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -14.7 (-8.7) | 125.8 (+10.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -16.4 (-10.4) | 125.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -16.4 (-10.4) | 127.7 (+8.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 11-0 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 23.7 (#1) | 8.7 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#6) | 1.81 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.78 (#6) | 2.90 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#17) | 0.592 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.3% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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