Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -5000 UCF +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +15 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -19.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.1 (-0.1) | 128.3 (-29.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -15.1 (-0.1) | 124.2 (-25.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -15.7 (-0.7) | 129.0 (-30.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -16.0 (-1.0) | 126.4 (-27.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
| Dec 31, 2022 | HOU 71 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 24.3 (#2) | 8.9 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#6) | 1.45 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.41 (#2) | 1.76 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#9) | 0.563 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 40.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.