Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | UCF +350 HOU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -9.4 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.1 (+30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -6.5 (-4.5) | 133.8 (+19.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.3 (-3.7) | 129.1 (+23.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -6.1 (-4.9) | 132.4 (+20.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -6.7 (-4.3) | 132.6 (+20.4) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Dec 31, 2022 | HOU 71 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-1 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 57.5 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#53) | 22.1 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#64) | 3.23 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#61) | 4.59 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#47) | 0.629 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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