Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +800 HOU -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -15.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.6 (+10.6) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.9 (+10.9) | 136.8 (+0.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -12.6 (+11.6) | 137.5 (-0.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -11.7 (+10.7) | 138.1 (-1.1) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Mar 7, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
| Dec 31, 2022 | HOU 71 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 35-5 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 19-1 |
| Home | 13-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 10-0 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#89) | 24.9 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#29) | 2.67 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#42) | 3.69 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#25) | 0.626 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 41.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.