Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +310 HOU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -10.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -8.5 (+0.5) | 134.4 (-8.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.7 (-0.3) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -6.5 (-1.5) | 135.6 (-9.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -7.2 (-0.8) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HOU 79 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | HOU 69 – 68 UCF |
| Jan 20, 2024 | HOU 57 – 42 UCF |
| Jan 26, 2023 | HOU 82 – 71 UCF |
| Dec 31, 2022 | HOU 71 – 65 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 32-5 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-8 | 17-0 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 57.6 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#52) | 23.3 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#96) | 3.76 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#91) | 4.56 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#110) | 0.660 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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