Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | SMC -5000 USD +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -19.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -18.0 (+9.0) | 144.6 (+2.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -19.9 (+7.1) | 145.2 (+1.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -16.2 (+10.8) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -17.6 (+9.4) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2025 | SMC 103 – 56 USD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SMC 88 – 62 USD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SMC 81 – 70 USD |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SMC 62 – 59 USD |
| Dec 30, 2022 | SMC 85 – 58 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 17-0 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#39) | -3.0 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#33) | -0.61 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#32) | -0.69 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#20) | 0.455 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 32.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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