Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | USD +650 SMC -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +11 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -8.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+20.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -9.2 (-1.8) | 136.0 (+15.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -6.9 (-4.1) | 133.0 (+18.0) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -8.3 (-2.7) | 134.1 (+16.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -7.3 (-3.7) | 134.9 (+16.1) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | SMC 87 – 60 USD |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SMC 103 – 56 USD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SMC 88 – 62 USD |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SMC 62 – 59 USD |
| Dec 30, 2022 | SMC 85 – 58 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 15-1 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-0 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 60.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#217) | 9.9 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#163) | 0.83 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#175) | 1.29 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#162) | 0.575 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 41.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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