Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -2000 USD +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +27 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -18.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -15.4 (+11.6) | 139.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -17.9 (+9.1) | 139.6 (+3.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -15.7 (+11.3) | 143.9 (-0.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -16.4 (+10.6) | 143.2 (-0.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | SMC 87 – 60 USD |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SMC 103 – 56 USD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SMC 88 – 62 USD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SMC 81 – 70 USD |
| Feb 17, 2023 | SMC 62 – 59 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 4-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-9 |
| Away | 6-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#16) | -1.0 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#58) | -0.62 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#45) | -0.30 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#44) | 0.462 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 80.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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