Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USD +700 SMC -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +3 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | SMC -14.7 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.5 (+10.5) | 139.4 (-18.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -13.9 (+10.9) | 139.6 (-18.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -14.5 (+11.5) | 141.5 (-20.5) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -12.6 (+9.6) | 142.8 (-21.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | SMC 87 – 60 USD |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SMC 103 – 56 USD |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SMC 88 – 62 USD |
| Jan 5, 2024 | SMC 81 – 70 USD |
| Dec 30, 2022 | SMC 85 – 58 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 14-2 |
| Home | 8-9 | 16-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 60.0 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#213) | 16.1 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#243) | 2.39 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#221) | 3.12 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#264) | 0.625 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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