Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | AMER -355 BUCK +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -9.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -8.2 (-9.2) | 140.1 (-21.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -7.8 (-8.8) | 140.2 (-21.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -8.8 (-9.8) | 141.1 (-22.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -8.5 (-9.5) | 141.5 (-22.5) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AMER 75 – 66 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#242) | -11.6 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#238) | -1.97 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#243) | -2.37 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#216) | 0.419 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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