Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -250 BUCK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +23 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -4.2 (-27.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -2.3 (-25.3) | 130.2 (+6.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -2.7 (-25.7) | 128.9 (+8.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -2.6 (-25.6) | 130.6 (+6.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.2 (-25.2) | 130.6 (+6.4) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AMER 75 – 66 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#269) | -6.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#313) | -1.52 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#303) | -1.77 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#314) | 0.464 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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