Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BUCK +145 AMER -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +18 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | AMER -3.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -2.5 (-15.5) | 139.9 (-7.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -1.8 (-16.2) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -2.8 (-15.2) | 142.4 (-10.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.6 (-15.4) | 142.8 (-10.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AMER 75 – 66 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#333) | -5.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#326) | -1.08 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#327) | -1.32 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#314) | 0.468 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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