Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -188 BUCK +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -4.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -1.7 (+7.3) | 135.3 (+5.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -3.0 (+6.0) | 134.1 (+6.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -2.2 (+6.8) | 134.7 (+6.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -2.2 (+6.8) | 135.9 (+5.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 8-9 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#265) | -5.8 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#290) | -1.20 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#287) | -1.36 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#303) | 0.446 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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