Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | BUCK -185 AMER +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +22 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -3.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -2.0 (+20.0) | 141.1 (-21.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -2.1 (+19.9) | 141.7 (-21.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -1.1 (+20.9) | 143.3 (-23.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -1.8 (+20.2) | 142.7 (-22.7) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
| Feb 3, 2024 | AMER 75 – 66 BUCK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#249) | -5.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#256) | -0.26 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#245) | -0.45 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#250) | 0.506 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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