Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UK -470 OU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +16 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UK -11.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -11.5 (+4.5) | 149.3 (+22.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -11.1 (+4.9) | 149.8 (+22.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -11.1 (+4.9) | 150.8 (+21.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -12.3 (+3.7) | 153.3 (+18.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | UK 85 – 84 OU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UK 83 – 82 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 82.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#26) | 9.0 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#27) | 0.88 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#29) | 1.50 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#36) | 0.488 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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