Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | OU +145 UK -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +1 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | UK -4.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -2.6 (+1.6) | 158.8 (+6.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -2.1 (+1.1) | 161.7 (+3.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -2.4 (+1.4) | 160.6 (+4.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -2.2 (+1.2) | 160.0 (+5.0) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UK 94 – 78 OU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | UK 85 – 84 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#57) | 19.0 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#27) | 3.12 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#32) | 3.80 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#60) | 0.620 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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