Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -850 BING +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -15.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -11.3 (+5.7) | 139.6 (+1.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -12.7 (+4.3) | 138.8 (+2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -13.6 (+3.4) | 137.2 (+3.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -12.9 (+4.1) | 135.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 60 BING |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 77 BING |
| Jan 4, 2025 | BING 87 – 82 UMBC |
| Mar 6, 2024 | BING 72 – 71 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UMBC 89 – 78 BING |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 4-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#259) | -18.5 (#361) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#264) | -3.70 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#267) | -4.64 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#268) | 0.311 (#365) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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