Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | BING +125 UMBC -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BING win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BING +5 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | BING -0.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BING -1.1 (+3.9) | 148.9 (+20.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BING -0.9 (+4.1) | 149.2 (+19.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BING -1.5 (+3.5) | 146.8 (+22.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BING -1.7 (+3.3) | 147.6 (+21.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 62 BING |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 60 BING |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 77 BING |
| Mar 6, 2024 | BING 72 – 71 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UMBC 89 – 78 BING |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BING | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-9 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 80.6 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#301) | -5.0 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#230) | -1.06 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#253) | -1.29 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#217) | 0.444 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BING | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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