Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -195 BING +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -4.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.3 (+0.7) | 148.1 (+9.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -2.2 (+1.8) | 147.0 (+11.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.6 (+1.4) | 146.4 (+11.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -2.8 (+1.2) | 146.3 (+11.7) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 62 BING |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 60 BING |
| Jan 4, 2025 | BING 87 – 82 UMBC |
| Mar 6, 2024 | BING 72 – 71 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UMBC 89 – 78 BING |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#291) | -9.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#310) | -1.06 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#284) | -1.42 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#298) | 0.459 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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