We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Conference USA · Murphy Center · February 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MTSU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money MTSU -270 / FIU +220
Model Predictions
Spread Total MTSU win
Actual FIU +4 172 Lost
Massey MTSU -5.5 (-9.5)
Massey Totals 154.4 (+17.6)
Bradley-Terry 79%
Weighted B-T 78%
Efficiency Plus ML MTSU -5.6 (-9.6) 147.1 (+24.9) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML MTSU -4.4 (-8.4) 145.7 (+26.3) 69%
Baseline ML MTSU -4.9 (-8.9) 146.5 (+25.5) 71%
Baseline Plus ML MTSU -4.8 (-8.8) 147.8 (+24.2) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2026 MTSU 7367 FIU
Mar 8, 2025 MTSU 7856 FIU
Jan 3, 2025 MTSU 7369 FIU
Feb 10, 2024 MTSU 6866 FIU
Jan 27, 2024 MTSU 7961 FIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MTSU FIU
Overall 17-15 15-17
Conference 11-9 8-12
Home 11-4 12-6
Away 5-8 3-10
Neutral 1-3 0-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.5 77.7
Avg Pts Against 74.6 79.1
Massey 0.9 (#149) -1.6 (#192)
Bradley-Terry 0.01 (#171) -0.80 (#236)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#179) -0.83 (#224)
RPI 0.536 (#103) 0.479 (#222)
Shooting & Four Factors MTSU FIU
FG% 43.0% 44.8%
3PT% 34.8% 34.6%
REB / G 35.8 35.9
OREB / G 10.6 12.2
AST / TO 1.11 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 50.8%
TOV% 17.6% 17.2%
ORB% 29.7% 32.7%
FT Rate 19.8% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.7% 52.7%
Opp TOV% 14.5% 20.2%
DRB% 71.2% 63.6%
Opp FT Rate 25.6% 24.8%

Game Analysis

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