Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | FIU -138 MTSU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | FIU -4.1 (-6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -2.2 (-4.2) | 138.5 (-4.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -2.3 (-4.3) | 137.6 (-3.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -1.7 (-3.7) | 139.9 (-5.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -1.8 (-3.8) | 139.9 (-5.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MTSU 73 – 67 FIU |
| Feb 5, 2026 | FIU 88 – 84 MTSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MTSU 78 – 56 FIU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MTSU 73 – 69 FIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MTSU 79 – 61 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 1-12 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#295) | -8.2 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#283) | -1.16 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#280) | -1.20 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#304) | 0.423 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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