Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -110 FIU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -1.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -0.8 (+17.2) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -1.7 (+16.3) | 138.7 (+1.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -0.8 (+17.2) | 136.9 (+3.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -0.8 (+17.2) | 136.2 (+3.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MTSU 73 – 67 FIU |
| Feb 5, 2026 | FIU 88 – 84 MTSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MTSU 78 – 56 FIU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MTSU 73 – 69 FIU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MTSU 68 – 66 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#299) | -5.7 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#290) | -1.14 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#281) | -1.25 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#316) | 0.434 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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