Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | FIU -110 MTSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | FIU -0.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -0.8 (-6.8) | 151.0 (-11.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -0.4 (-6.4) | 150.9 (-10.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -0.5 (-6.5) | 154.9 (-14.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -0.3 (-6.3) | 152.7 (-12.7) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | FIU 88 – 84 MTSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MTSU 78 – 56 FIU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MTSU 73 – 69 FIU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MTSU 68 – 66 FIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MTSU 79 – 61 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#198) | 0.4 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#227) | -0.13 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#215) | -0.19 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#213) | 0.525 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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