Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -900 FIU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +22 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -11.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -9.9 (+12.1) | 144.1 (-10.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -9.0 (+13.0) | 143.6 (-9.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -10.3 (+11.7) | 143.2 (-9.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -9.8 (+12.2) | 144.4 (-10.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MTSU 73 – 67 FIU |
| Feb 5, 2026 | FIU 88 – 84 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MTSU 73 – 69 FIU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MTSU 68 – 66 FIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MTSU 79 – 61 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#119) | -5.3 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.16 (#83) | -1.31 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#103) | -1.35 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#54) | 0.407 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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