Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -135 YSU +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +29 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -2.4 (-31.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -3.2 (-32.2) | 143.5 (+7.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -2.0 (-31.0) | 147.1 (+3.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -3.4 (-32.4) | 146.5 (+4.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -2.7 (-31.7) | 145.3 (+5.7) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Feb 12, 2025 | YSU 93 – 71 PFW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PFW 90 – 81 YSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | PFW 82 – 78 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#223) | -3.1 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#141) | -0.99 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#194) | -1.08 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#156) | 0.433 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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