Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -260 YSU +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -7.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.6 (+4.4) | 147.0 (+24.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -5.4 (+3.6) | 151.7 (+19.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -5.8 (+3.2) | 150.8 (+20.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -5.1 (+3.9) | 149.1 (+21.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | YSU 90 – 61 PFW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Feb 12, 2025 | YSU 93 – 71 PFW |
| Feb 4, 2024 | PFW 82 – 78 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#120) | -1.2 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#143) | 0.02 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#127) | -0.17 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#132) | 0.466 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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