Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | PFW +155 YSU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -0.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -1.0 (+5.0) | 147.6 (+12.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -0.6 (+4.6) | 150.0 (+10.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -0.9 (+4.9) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -2.4 (+6.4) | 148.8 (+11.2) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | YSU 90 – 61 PFW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Feb 12, 2025 | YSU 93 – 71 PFW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PFW 90 – 81 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 10-8 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#153) | 4.8 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#198) | 0.54 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#182) | 0.64 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#228) | 0.529 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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