Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | YSU +100 PFW -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +22 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -1.8 (+23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.7 (+22.7) | 154.2 (+9.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -0.3 (+21.7) | 155.8 (+8.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -1.0 (+23.0) | 156.5 (+7.5) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.7 (+22.7) | 155.6 (+8.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | YSU 90 – 61 PFW |
| Jan 8, 2026 | PFW 71 – 69 YSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | YSU 72 – 67 PFW |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PFW 90 – 81 YSU |
| Feb 4, 2024 | PFW 82 – 78 YSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#210) | 2.4 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#193) | 0.42 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#189) | 0.65 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#217) | 0.532 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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