Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -6500 PSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +41 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -29.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -25.9 (+15.1) | 157.0 (+22.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -21.0 (+20.0) | 156.0 (+23.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -21.0 (+20.0) | 156.3 (+22.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -26.3 (+14.7) | 157.4 (+21.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | MICH 74 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2025 | MICH 76 – 72 PSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PSU 66 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 7, 2024 | PSU 79 – 73 MICH |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PSU 83 – 61 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 11-0 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 29.5 (#1) | 2.7 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.10 (#3) | 0.24 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.06 (#4) | 0.11 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.697 (#1) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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