Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | PSU +135 MICH -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +6 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -3.9 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.7 (+6.7) | 154.8 (-2.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -1.5 (+7.5) | 154.2 (-2.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -0.2 (+5.8) | 155.4 (-3.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -0.0 (+6.0) | 155.5 (-3.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MICH 110 – 69 PSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | MICH 74 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2025 | MICH 76 – 72 PSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PSU 66 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PSU 83 – 61 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#115) | 7.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#204) | 0.57 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#193) | 1.17 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#237) | 0.566 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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