Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -175 MICH +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +22 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -5.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -4.9 (+17.1) | 142.3 (+1.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -5.2 (+16.8) | 140.0 (+4.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -5.0 (+17.0) | 142.6 (+1.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -5.3 (+16.7) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | MICH 110 – 69 PSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | MICH 74 – 72 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2025 | MICH 76 – 72 PSU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PSU 66 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 7, 2024 | PSU 79 – 73 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#59) | 7.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#52) | 1.17 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#47) | 1.93 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#69) | 0.550 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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