Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -115 STMN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -0.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.5 (-16.5) | 150.4 (-11.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -0.4 (-15.4) | 148.6 (-9.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -0.6 (-15.6) | 148.9 (-9.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -0.5 (-15.5) | 150.6 (-11.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SDST 59 – 49 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 9-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#166) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#240) | 0.46 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#220) | 0.70 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#244) | 0.521 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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