Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -140 SDST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +1 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -4.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -3.8 (-2.8) | 155.9 (-10.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.3 (-1.3) | 151.4 (-6.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -4.3 (-3.3) | 152.9 (-7.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -4.6 (-3.6) | 153.2 (-8.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SDST 59 – 49 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-0 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#94) | 4.6 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#96) | 0.45 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#97) | 0.85 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#120) | 0.510 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 78.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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