Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SDST -154 STMN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +10 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -0.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.2 (+10.2) | 135.2 (-27.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -0.2 (+10.2) | 133.2 (-25.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -0.5 (+9.5) | 136.6 (-28.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.3 (+10.3) | 137.4 (-29.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | -0.28 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#162) | -0.10 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#143) | 0.485 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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