Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -185 STMN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +16 | 188 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -4.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -3.2 (+12.8) | 155.4 (+32.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -3.6 (+12.4) | 156.5 (+31.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -3.0 (+13.0) | 153.3 (+34.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -3.0 (+13.0) | 154.6 (+33.4) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SDST 59 – 49 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#97) | 4.1 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#154) | 0.86 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#144) | 0.92 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#155) | 0.535 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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