Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -225 SDST +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -6.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -4.8 (+8.2) | 148.7 (-1.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -5.1 (+7.9) | 147.3 (-0.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -6.0 (+7.0) | 147.4 (-0.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -5.5 (+7.5) | 148.6 (-1.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | STMN 74 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SDST 59 – 49 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#104) | -1.5 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#125) | -1.03 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#113) | -0.97 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#91) | 0.464 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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