Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -298 SDST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +5 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -6.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -6.4 (-1.4) | 151.7 (-8.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -5.6 (-0.6) | 149.6 (-6.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -5.6 (-0.6) | 149.7 (-6.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -6.2 (-1.2) | 150.8 (-7.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | STMN 80 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 5, 2026 | STMN 77 – 62 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDST 102 – 86 STMN |
| Jan 9, 2025 | STMN 73 – 72 SDST |
| Mar 11, 2024 | SDST 59 – 49 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#122) | 0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#112) | -0.71 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#116) | -0.63 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#110) | 0.458 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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