Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | USF -6500 UTSA +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +21 | 197 | Won |
| Massey | USF -28.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.2 (+33.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -19.4 (+1.6) | 158.6 (+38.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -19.9 (+1.1) | 153.8 (+43.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -23.8 (-2.8) | 155.5 (+41.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -23.3 (-2.3) | 160.1 (+36.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2025 | USF 78 – 73 UTSA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | USF 66 – 61 UTSA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | USF 89 – 72 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 1-17 |
| Home | 13-2 | 2-12 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#60) | -15.6 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#85) | -2.23 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#71) | -2.75 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#61) | 0.417 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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