Betting Lines
| Spread | UTSA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA -165 USF +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +5 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | UTSA -3.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTSA -2.2 (-7.2) | 148.0 (+3.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTSA -2.9 (-7.9) | 146.2 (+4.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTSA -2.7 (-7.7) | 147.5 (+3.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTSA -3.1 (-8.1) | 149.6 (+1.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | USF 109 – 88 UTSA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | USF 66 – 61 UTSA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | USF 89 – 72 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#210) | -2.4 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#229) | -0.47 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#221) | -0.60 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#185) | 0.468 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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