Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | USF -450 UTSA +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +17 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | USF -12.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -10.6 (+6.4) | 159.5 (+1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -10.8 (+6.2) | 157.0 (+4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -10.6 (+6.4) | 156.0 (+5.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -11.1 (+5.9) | 159.0 (+2.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | USF 109 – 88 UTSA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USF 78 – 73 UTSA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | USF 66 – 61 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 81.6 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | -6.0 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#107) | -1.03 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#121) | -1.39 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#100) | 0.438 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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