Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +220 USF -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -8.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -7.3 (+2.3) | 151.9 (-24.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -8.4 (+3.4) | 151.2 (-24.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -8.4 (+3.4) | 152.2 (-25.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -9.0 (+4.0) | 153.1 (-26.1) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | USF 109 – 88 UTSA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USF 78 – 73 UTSA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | USF 89 – 72 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 16-2 |
| Home | 7-9 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#284) | 5.3 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#305) | 1.63 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#306) | 1.63 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#318) | 0.583 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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