Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -155 BTLR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -1.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 182.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -0.5 (+9.5) | 167.6 (+16.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -0.1 (+10.1) | 165.4 (+18.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.1 (+8.9) | 163.2 (+20.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -0.9 (+9.1) | 164.4 (+19.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PROV 84 – 65 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#78) | 9.9 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#112) | 1.37 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#90) | 1.82 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#178) | 0.533 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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