Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +110 BTLR -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | BTLR -2.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -2.2 (-3.8) | 146.0 (-2.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -1.4 (-4.6) | 145.5 (-1.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -2.4 (-3.6) | 145.8 (-1.8) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -2.2 (-3.8) | 146.8 (-2.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PROV 84 – 65 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#94) | 7.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#146) | 0.51 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#117) | 1.05 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#191) | 0.503 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 11.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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