Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BUT -200 PROV +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUT +1 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | BUT -4.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -4.8 (-3.8) | 145.1 (+17.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -5.9 (-4.9) | 143.2 (+19.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -5.9 (-4.9) | 143.8 (+19.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -5.5 (-4.5) | 143.2 (+19.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BUT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BUT |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BUT 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BUT 75 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PROV 84 – 65 BUT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#72) | 6.4 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#136) | 0.63 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#100) | 1.08 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#157) | 0.523 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.3% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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