Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR +100 PROV -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +10 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | BTLR -0.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -0.3 (-10.3) | 163.8 (+8.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -0.2 (-10.2) | 163.3 (+8.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -0.2 (-10.2) | 161.6 (+10.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -0.6 (-10.6) | 162.5 (+9.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PROV 84 – 65 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#74) | 8.1 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#82) | 0.96 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#81) | 1.47 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.501 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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