Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR -185 PROV +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +3 | 223 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -11.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.8 (+45.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -10.1 (-7.1) | 166.2 (+56.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -9.5 (-6.5) | 163.7 (+59.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -9.6 (-6.6) | 163.2 (+59.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -7.6 (-4.6) | 163.4 (+59.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 9, 2025 | PROV 84 – 65 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 12.7 (#38) | 6.4 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#60) | 0.91 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#59) | 1.46 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#75) | 0.543 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 40.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.