Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -145 BUT +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -2.3 (+16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.1 (+15.9) | 137.3 (+11.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.4 (+16.6) | 135.3 (+13.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.7 (+17.3) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.2 (+16.8) | 134.7 (+14.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BUT |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BUT |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BUT 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BUT 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BUT 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#86) | 7.7 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#107) | 0.53 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#92) | 1.48 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#80) | 0.530 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 11.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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